Palm Coast, Florida 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

870
FXUS62 KJAX 141735
AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
135 PM EDT Wed May 14 2025

...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER, CLIMATE...

.NEAR TERM...
Issued at 135 PM EDT Wed May 14 2025

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit:
https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

Patchy fog will likely form tonight across inland northeast
Florida, mainly west of the St. Johns river basin as winds calm
overnight. Low temperatures will be mild tonight, only dropping
into the mid to upper 60s inland, and near 70 along the coast and
St. Johns river basin area.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Thursday through Friday night)
Issued at 135 PM EDT Wed May 14 2025

Hot and dry weather pattern in store as High pressure ridge axis
remains across the Central/Southern FL peninsula and West to
Southwest steering flow keeps the East Coast sea breeze pinned
near the Atlantic Coast. This will allow for Max temps to reach
near record levels into the lower/middle 90s both days, along with
some upper 90s possible along the I-95 and US-17 corridors Friday
afternoon just to the west of the pinned East Coast sea breeze
front, along with peak heat index readings around 100F. PWATs will
remain in the 1 inch to 1.25 inch range and while a rogue isolated
shower cannot be ruled out in the strong surface heating, the lack
of surface boundaries will keep overall rainfall chances around 10
percent or less. Overnight lows will generally fall into the
mid/upper 60s inland and lower 70s along the Atlantic Coast. Fog
chances will remain fairly low with just some patchy fog possible
across inland areas just before sunrise both days, mainly in the
5am to 8am time frame and mostly across inland NE FL along the
I-75 corridors, including the Suwannee Valley near Live Oak/Lake
City.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through next Wednesday)
Issued at 135 PM EDT Wed May 14 2025

Above normal temps and mostly dry conditions will continue as the
high pressure ridge remains intact across the FL peninsula with a
hotter than normal westerly steering flow keeping Max temps at
near record levels well into the 90s. Some of the longer range
models push a weak frontal boundary into the SE US states this
weekend that stalls just north of the local area across
GA/Carolinas, but a few leak enough moisture into SE GA for the
potential of isolated to widely scattered afternoon/evening
thunderstorms from Sunday into early next week, with potential for
rainfall chances of 20-30% across SE GA, while rainfall chances
remain 20% or less across NE FL in this weather pattern. Overnight
lows will generally be in the upper 60s/near 70F over inland areas
and lower to middle 70s along the Atlantic Coast.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 105 PM EDT Wed May 14 2025

VFR conditions are expected through this evening, with winds
around 5-10 knots at the TAF sites. Tonight, MVFR fog may impact
GNV and VQQ before sunrise, with a higher chance being at VQQ.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 135 PM EDT Wed May 14 2025

Winds will generally be southwesterly during the morning and
overnight hours, shifting to southerly each afternoon and evening.
Winds and seas are expected to remain below Small Craft Advisory
conditions through the weekend, with potential for exercise
caution winds for the offshore waters Thursday and Saturday
evenings. No thunder is forecast through the weekend.

Rip Currents: Moderate rip current risk through at least Thursday
for the area beaches.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 135 PM EDT Wed May 14 2025

Hot temps and W-SW flow will promote pockets of high dispersions
above 75 units, mainly across SE GA and coastal NE FL (along the
I-95/US-17 corridors) where the W-SW flow will drop Min RH levels
around 35 percent both Thursday and Friday afternoons. Wind gusts
from the W-SW will peak in the 20-25 mph range during the
afternoon hours as some wind does mix down to the surface during
the strong surface heating, which could present some issues if any
wildfires did develop. Overall, fuels are in a better situation
due to the recent rainfall, but will dry out quickly as the hotter
and drier weather pattern takes hold this week into the weekend.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 135 PM EDT Wed May 14 2025

Daily Record High Maximum Temperatures at local climate sites...

THU 5/15...JAX 97/1967...CRG 91/1991...GNV 97/1985...AMG 94/1990

FRI 5/16...JAX 96/1995...CRG 94/1994...GNV 98/1896...AMG 95/1990

SAT 5/17...JAX 96/1995...CRG 93/2001...GNV 96/1915...AMG 94/2001

SUN 5/18...JAX 96/1899...CRG 93/2001...GNV 97/1930...AMG 95/2001

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  66  92  67  94 /   0   0   0   0
SSI  70  89  71  90 /   0   0   0   0
JAX  67  95  67  97 /   0   0   0   0
SGJ  67  93  67  94 /   0   0   0   0
GNV  65  93  65  95 /   0   0   0   0
OCF  65  93  65  94 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$