Palm Coast, Florida 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

246
FXUS62 KJAX 191551
AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
1151 AM EDT Sat Jul 19 2025

...New UPDATE...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1147 AM EDT Sat Jul 19 2025

Quick update late this morning to expand the Heat Advisory
northward to US Highway 82 in SE GA. As of nearly noon, the
dewpoints are still in the upper 70s in that region and with
highs expected in the upper 90s in just a few hours, dangerous
levels of heat are expected across the expansion area (including
Waycross). This is the hottest stretch so far this summer and
heat-related illness will become a high risk today especially for
sensitive groups. No other changes needed at this time.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Today through Tonight)
Issued at 205 AM EDT Sat Jul 19 2025

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit:
https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

Warm and humid conditions will continue today as high pressure will
be situated over north central FL today. Chances of
precipitation, 30% or less, will mostly be limited as PWATs drop
to below normal levels. Low sky cover and sunny conditions will
result in temperatures rising to the upper 90s for most inland
locations, while coastal locations will see slightly `cooler`
temps in the lower 90s thanks to the Atlantic sea breeze. The
Atlantic sea breeze will stay pinned along the coast as westerly
flow dominants across the area. The warmer temperatures in
combination with dewpoints sitting in the mid to upper 70s will
allow for heat index values to rise to the 108-112 degree range
across NE FL and the coastal areas of SE GA, prompting a Heat
Advisory from 12pm to 6pm.

The high pressure will begin to shift west/southwest towards the Gulf
waters through the overnight hours into Sunday. Lows will begin
cool down into the mid to upper 70s, with warmer temps along the
coast.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Sunday through Monday night)
Issued at 205 AM EDT Sat Jul 19 2025

A low/mid level ridge will be just south of the area on Sunday,
from across the eastern Gulf, central FL, and into the western
Atlantic. Subsidence and warm temps aloft will lead to highs in
the mid to upper 90s with little chance for showers or thunderstorms
at below 20 percent probs. Westerly winds of about 10 mph will
keep the Atlantic sea breeze at the coast. It looks like we may
again see heat advisory criteria in many areas with values of
about 108 to 110 occurring, but the daytime deep boundary layer
mixing will help keep some of the higher dewpoints and heat
indices in check. Warm overnight lows expected Sunday night in
the mid to upper 70s with light winds.

Monday, the low/mid level high will shift a little further west
while troughing develops across the Mid Atlantic and into the
Carolinas. A backdoor front will move into SC and NC by Monday
night. Our flow aloft turns northwesterly with some subtle
disturbances and increased moisture (PWAT 2 inches) to kick off
better chances of showers and storms, mainly over northeast FL.
Regardless, the heat is still on with highs in the mid to upper
90s with heat indices of 108 to possibly near 112. What may help
curtail the heat is any precip relief, but still another heat
advisory may be warranted. Scattered precip is likely on Monday
night given lingering boundaries and instability. Gusty winds and
locally heavy rainfall will accompany stronger storms. Lows in
the mid to upper 70s expected Mon night.

Temps will be within 3 degrees of records in some locations while
we may also have record high minimum temps as well.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Friday)
Issued at 205 AM EDT Sat Jul 19 2025

The backdoor front previously mentioned above will move into the
region on Tuesday with a pre-frontal trough also in play. Plenty
of moisture available with PWATs forecast to average about 2.1 to
2.3 inches, and daytime instability and boundary layer mechanisms
leads to moderate to high confidence in numerous to widespread
showers and thunderstorms. On Wednesday and Thursday, the weak
frontal boundary near the FL/GA state line and deep moisture may
shift a little further south and southwest with a possible lowering
of rain chances a bit, but still looks like plenty of moisture
for high POPs again. Probably going to see numerous showers and
thunderstorm coverage again. By Friday, the front should be diffuse
and ill- defined but plenty of moisture lingers to continue with
above normal rain chances. Heavy rainfall amounts will be possible
Tuesday and Wednesday with some locations maybe picking up to 2-5
inches of rain so some localized flooding is possible. WPC
showing marginal risk of excessive rainfall on Tuesday.

Temperatures will begin the period above normal as highs remain
in the mid 90s away from the coast with high heat index values
potentially into heat advisory levels Tuesday before highs trend
downward due to the clouds, precip, and the backdoor front.

&&

.AVIATION...(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 719 AM EDT Sat Jul 19 2025

An atypical summer day with limited diurnal convection likely due to
subsidence warming beneath a formidable upper ridge and less
moisture availability. Light southwest flow will continue and keep
the Atlc sea breeze pinned near the coast through the afternoon
before it breaks free and pushes toward the I-95 corridor this
evening. There still may be a few spotty showers around terminals in
NE FL between 20-24z, which could produce a gusty, erratic winds up
to 30 kts. VFR conditions will prevail through the period with
cumulus developing at or above 5kft early this afternoon.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 205 AM EDT Sat Jul 19 2025

High pressure will be centered over the FL peninsula this afternoon.
Only isolated late afternoon and evening thunderstorms are possible
across the near shore waters through this afternoon into early
evening. Troughing will then develop on Sunday over the southeastern
states on Sunday, with this feature potentially sharpening near
our local waters early next week. Chances for showers and thunderstorms
will increase beginning late Sunday afternoon. Strong to isolated
severe afternoon and evening thunderstorms potentially impacting
our local waters each day next week. Seas of 2 to 3 feet will
prevail both near shore and offshore during the next several days.

Rip Currents: A persistent east-southeasterly ocean swell will
combine with developing onshore winds leading to a lower end moderate
risk at all area beaches this afternoon, low risk of rip currents
develop for southeast Georgia beaches on Sunday.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 1229 PM Fri Jul 18 2025

Daily record high temperatures at our designated climate sites
through Tuesday, July 22

                Today     Sunday    Monday    Tuesday
                ---------------------------------------
Jacksonville    101/2000  103/2000  102/1942  101/1942
Gainesville     101/1899  100/1942  102/1942  99/1907
Alma, GA        102/2002  104/2000  102/1942  100/1942
Craig Airport   99/1993   100/2000  98/2015   99/1977

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  97  75  98  77 /  10  10  10  10
SSI  93  80  96  81 /  10  10  10  10
JAX  98  77  99  78 /  10  10  10  10
SGJ  93  77  96  77 /  20  10  10  10
GNV  97  74  97  76 /  30  10  10   0
OCF  95  75  95  76 /  30  10  20   0

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Heat Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for FLZ021-023-024-030-
     031-035-038-120-124-125-132-136>138-140-220-225-232-233-236-
     237-240-322-325-333-340-422-425-433-522-533-633.

GA...Heat Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for GAZ149-151>154-162-
     163-165-166-250-264-350-364.

AM...None.
&&

$$